AA 1854 · PHL → ORD

took off 2:06 PM ET · landed 2:44 PM CT (scheduled 12:54 PM ET → 2:15 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHL that day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

ORD (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1854 · PHL → ORD

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORD?