Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Monday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1865 SCHEDULED

Monday, October 12 Tomorrow

AA 1865 · ORD → SJU

departs 8:11 AM CT · arrives 1:45 PM AT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1865 · ORD → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?