AA 1971 · CUN → PHL

took off · landed 3:29 PM ET (scheduled 11:17 AM EST → 4:04 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHL that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

CUN (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1971 · CUN → PHL

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHL?