AA 2045 · PHL → SFO

departs 5:29 PM ET · arrives 8:39 PM PT

Your aircraft is N452AN (A21N), coming in as AA 2722 from SFO: landed 3:44 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

SFO (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2045 · PHL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?