AA 2051 · BFL → PHX

took off 12:37 PM PT · landed 1:43 PM MT (scheduled 12:30 PM PT → 2:11 PM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BFL

Weather at each end

BFL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2051 · BFL → PHX

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHX?