Schedule: FAA flight plans.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2221
SCHEDULED
Monday, October 12 Today
AA 2221 · RDU → LGA
departs 12:28 PM ET · arrives 2:04 PM ET
Your aircraft is N951NN (B738), coming in as AA 2221 from CLT: still at CLT, due off about 1:01 PM ET, 72 min after the scheduled departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/13 23%
Wed 10/14 23%
Thu 10/15 34%
Fri 10/16 46%
Sun 10/18 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
100%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
100%
Leave 15+ late
100%
Arrive 1h+ late
100%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 141 min after the scheduled departure, about 126 min late from the gate after a typical 15-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 49%.
+3 pts
100%
Yes 100%
No 0%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 141 min after the scheduled departure, about 126 min late from the gate after a typical 15-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 42%.
+4 pts
100%
Yes 100%
No 0%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 141 min after the scheduled departure, about 126 min late from the gate after a typical 15-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 14%.
+6 pts
100%
Yes 100%
No <1%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
AA's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.