Schedule: FAA flight plans.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2280 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 9:35 AM ET (20 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Monday, October 12 Tomorrow

AA 2280 · PHL → LAS

departs 9:09 AM ET · arrives 11:21 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 233 ft, visibility down to 1.33333 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling233 ft Visibility1.33333 mi Precip0.15 in

LAS (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2280 · PHL → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?