Schedule: FAA flight plans.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2322 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 8:58 PM ET (24 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Monday, October 12 Today

AA 2322 · PHL → TPA

departs 8:25 PM ET · arrives 11:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

TPA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2322 · PHL → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?