AA 2407 · BOS → LAX

took off 6:45 PM ET · expected to land 9:38 PM PT (scheduled 5:46 PM ET → 9:12 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

98% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

LIVE

On time or early
2%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
72%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BOS that day

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.41 in

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2407 · BOS → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?