AA 2663 · PHL → SFO

took off 8:15 PM ET · expected to land 10:53 PM PT (scheduled 7:37 PM ET → 10:48 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
39%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.35 in

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2663 · PHL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?