AA 2885 · SFO → ORD

departs 10:50 AM PT · arrives 5:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2885 · SFO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?