AA 3015 · PHL → IND

took off 4:55 PM ET · landed 6:26 PM ET (scheduled 4:35 PM ET → 6:50 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to IND?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHL that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

IND (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3015 · PHL → IND

Odds over time

How late did it get to IND?