AA 3262 · PHL → MCO

took off 3:51 PM ET · expected to land 5:40 PM ET (scheduled 3:41 PM ET → 6:21 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3262 · PHL → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?