AA 407 · ORD → BOS

took off 7:37 PM CT · expected to land 10:31 PM ET (scheduled 5:12 PM CT → 8:42 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOS?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
61%
Over 2 hours late
39%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.41 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 407 · ORD → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?