AA 428 · PHL → PHX

departs 7:05 AM ET · arrives 9:05 AM MT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from PHL are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.60 in

PHX (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 428 · PHL → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?