AA 736 · PHL → LHR

took off 8:00 PM ET · landed 7:03 AM BST (scheduled 7:31 PM ET → 7:07 AM BST)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LHR more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LHR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.35 in

LHR (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 736 · PHL → LHR

Odds over time

How late did it get to LHR?