AA 742 · PHL → BCN

took off 9:09 PM ET · expected to land 9:33 AM CEST (scheduled 7:40 PM ET → 9:22 AM CEST)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BCN more than 15 minutes late?

62% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BCN?

LIVE

On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
50%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into BCN at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.35 in

BCN (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 742 · PHL → BCN

Odds over time

How late will it get to BCN?