AA 854 · FLL → PHL

took off 8:42 PM ET · expected to land 11:00 PM ET (scheduled 8:13 PM ET → 11:11 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

3% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

LIVE

On time or early
97%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from FLL are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 854 · FLL → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?