AA 870 · PHL → AUA

took off 9:15 AM ET · landed 1:12 PM AST (scheduled 8:31 AM ET → 1:04 PM AST)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at AUA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to AUA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHL that day

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into AUA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

AUA (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 870 · PHL → AUA

Odds over time

How late did it get to AUA?