AA 9788 · PHL → VQQ

took off 4:06 PM ET · landed 5:53 PM ET (scheduled 1:43 PM ET → 3:47 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at VQQ more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to VQQ?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
✓

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHL that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Arrivals into VQQ at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

VQQ (destination) Gusts1 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 9788 · PHL → VQQ

Odds over time

How late did it get to VQQ?