Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 9796 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Today

AA 9796 · DFW → ORD

departs 5:06 AM CT · arrives 7:39 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 9796 · DFW → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?