AC 1040 · DEN → YYZ

took off 11:44 AM MT · expected to land 4:26 PM EDT (scheduled 11:35 AM MT → 5:04 PM EDT)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to YYZ?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Gusts to 32 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ YYZ usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 1040 · DEN → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?