AM 640 · MEX → BOS

took off 1:03 PM CST (scheduled 12:35 PM CST → 7:52 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ BOS is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BOS that day

Weather at each end

MEX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AM 640 · MEX → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?