AS 101 · LHR → SEA

took off 6:43 PM BST (scheduled 4:58 PM BST → 6:18 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LHR

Weather at each end

LHR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 101 · LHR → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?