Schedule: FAA flight plans.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 389 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 7:30 PM ET (1 H 6 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Monday, October 12 Today

AS 389 · BOS → SAN

departs 6:12 PM ET · arrives 9:20 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

98% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
34%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BOS that day

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.31 in

SAN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 389 · BOS → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?