AS 571 · SEA → ONT

took off 10:50 AM PT · expected to land 12:50 PM PT (scheduled 10:30 AM PT → 1:11 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ONT?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at ONT that day

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ONT (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 571 · SEA → ONT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ONT?