Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AVIANCA · FLIGHT AV 247 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Tomorrow

AV 247 · IAD → BOG

departs 3:38 PM ET · arrives 8:08 PM -05

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at BOG more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOG?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 3pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOG

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.33333 mi Precip0.41 in

BOG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AV 247 · IAD → BOG

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOG?