B6 1004 · SJU → JFK

departs 2:58 PM AT · arrives 6:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ SJU usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SJU (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

JFK (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 1004 · SJU → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?