B6 1086 · MCO → BUF

took off 2:23 PM ET · expected to land 4:36 PM ET (scheduled 1:54 PM ET → 4:32 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BUF?

LIVE

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at BUF that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 1086 · MCO → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?