B6 177 · BOS → LAS

took off 6:47 PM ET · expected to land 9:16 PM PT (scheduled 6:19 PM ET → 9:01 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

74% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

LIVE

On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
54%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.31 in

LAS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 177 · BOS → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?