Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 522
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
B6 522 · MBJ → MCO
departs 1:10 PM EST · arrives 4:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 23%
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 27%
Fri 10/16 27%
Sat 10/17 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MBJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MBJ that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MBJ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.