B6 551 · BOS → MCO

took off 6:39 PM ET · expected to land 9:09 PM ET (scheduled 5:37 PM ET → 9:00 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts −21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

LIVE

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
52%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.31 in

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 551 · BOS → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?