Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 8504
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
B6 8504 · JFK → ISP
departs 10:55 AM ET · arrives 11:49 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ISP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ISP?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
ISP usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into ISP at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.10 in
ISP (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.