Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

BRITISH AIRWAYS · FLIGHT BA 216 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Tomorrow

BA 216 · IAD → LHR

departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 5:43 AM BST

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at LHR more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LHR?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LHR

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.66667 mi Precip0.41 in

LHR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

BA 216 · IAD → LHR

Odds over time

How late will it get to LHR?