Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

BRITISH AIRWAYS · FLIGHT BA 290 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Tomorrow

BA 290 · IAD → LHR

departs 7:23 PM ET · arrives 7:00 AM BST

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at LHR more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LHR?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LHR

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling267 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.41 in

LHR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

BA 290 · IAD → LHR

Odds over time

How late will it get to LHR?