Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4245
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
C5 4245 · JAN → IAH
departs 12:06 PM CT · arrives 1:49 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/13 20%
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave JAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from JAN are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAN
Weather at each end
JAN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.