Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4347
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
C5 4347 · IAH → JAN
departs 10:00 AM CT · arrives 11:28 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14 10%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 18%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at JAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAN?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↑
10am departures from IAH are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
JAN usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAN
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 8,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
JAN (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.