C5 4368 · IAD → ROA

departs 8:34 AM ET · arrives 9:39 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at ROA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.33333 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at ROA that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.24 in

ROA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility4.33333 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4368 · IAD → ROA

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROA?