Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Monday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4896 SCHEDULED

Monday, October 12 Tomorrow

C5 4896 · IAH → JAN

departs 12:16 PM CT · arrives 1:53 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAN?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ JAN usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAN

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

JAN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4896 · IAH → JAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAN?