Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CHINA · FLIGHT CA 983 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12

CA 983 · PEK → LAX

departs 10:00 PM CST · arrives 7:09 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PEK

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PEK (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CA 983 · PEK → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?