CI 3 · SFO → TPE

took off 1:36 AM PT · expected to land 5:24 AM CST (scheduled 1:16 AM PT → 6:25 AM CST)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at TPE more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPE?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 1am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPE

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPE (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CI 3 · SFO → TPE

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPE?