Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

CHINA AIRLINES · FLIGHT CI 5345 IN THE AIR (OFF 2:53 AM PT, ETA 6:28 AM CST) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 12 Today

CI 5345 · SFO → TPE

took off 2:53 AM PT · expected to land 6:28 AM CST (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at TPE more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SFO is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPE

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPE (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CI 5345 · SFO → TPE

Odds over time