CM 253 · LAS → PTY

departs 12:37 AM PT · arrives 9:00 AM EST

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PTY?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ 12am departures from LAS are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ PTY usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into PTY at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PTY (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 253 · LAS → PTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to PTY?