Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
CATHAY PACIFIC · FLIGHT CX 3295
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
CX 3295 · JFK → HKG
departs 3:59 PM ET · arrives 7:18 PM HKT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/15 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at HKG more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HKG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at HKG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HKG?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.15 in
HKG (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.