Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1415
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
DL 1415 · RIC → ATL
departs 8:00 AM ET · arrives 9:42 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at RIC that day
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.20 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.