DL 1451 · PHX → SLC

departs 7:20 PM MT · arrives 9:59 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SLC?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at SLC that day

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SLC (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.53 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1451 · PHX → SLC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SLC?