DL 1852 · MCO → DTW

took off 2:09 PM ET · expected to land 4:19 PM ET (scheduled 2:01 PM ET → 4:32 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

3% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

LIVE

On time or early
97%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1852 · MCO → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?