DL 860 · SFO → BOS

took off 3:51 PM PT · expected to land 11:43 PM ET (scheduled 3:00 PM PT → 11:41 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOS?

LIVE

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 860 · SFO → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?