EK 232 · IAD → DXB

took off 11:12 AM ET · expected to land 7:11 AM +04 (scheduled 10:58 AM ET → 7:32 AM +04)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DXB more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DXB?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ IAD is busy at that time

↓ 10am departures from IAD are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DXB

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.97 in

DXB (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

EK 232 · IAD → DXB

Odds over time

How late will it get to DXB?