Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ETHIOPIAN · FLIGHT ET 3500 IN THE AIR (OFF 1:22 AM GMT, ETA 5:57 AM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 12 Today

ET 3500 · DSS → IAH

took off 1:22 AM GMT · expected to land 5:57 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DSS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

DSS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling8,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

ET 3500 · DSS → IAH

Odds over time